Autoria: HAMADA, E.; GHINI, R.; PEDRO JÚNIOR, M. J.; MARENGO, J. A.

Resumo: The global climate changes caused by anthropic action can alter the current scenario of phytosanitary problems in Brazilian agriculture. An analysis of the possible effects of global climate changes on plant pests and diseases is essential for the adoption of mitigatory actions, in order to avoid more serious damage. This work evaluates the potential effects of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of the coffee leaf miner, applying geoprocessing tools, climate data and a model of probable number of insect generations. Two future scenarios focusing on the 2050?s were selected (A2 and B2). The mean increases in mean temperature caused by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse effect gases were calculated for Brazil. The spatial distribution of the probable number of coffee leaf miner generation was obtained applying a literature model. The spatial distribution maps for the probable number of coffee leaf miner generations under the A2 scenario allowed us to observe that there could increase the occurrence of pest infestation based on the number of generations per month when compared with the present climatic condition. With respect to the B2 scenario, it can be noted that it was lower than the A2 scenario

Ano de publicação: 2005

Tipo de publicação: Artigo em anais e proceedings

Unidade: Embrapa Meio Ambiente

Palavras-chave: Bicho mineiro, Bisho-mineiro, Café, Geoprocessamento, Mudança Climática