01/08/23 |

Projections for 2040 indicate that climate will impact GDP and agriculture in central and northeastern Brazil

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 - Aryeverton Oliveira (on the right) is a researcher at Embrapa Digital Agriculture

Aryeverton Oliveira (on the right) is a researcher at Embrapa Digital Agriculture

Paper that reports the data was awarded by Sober

Embrapa has participated in a study on the potential socioeconomic impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture and economy by 2040. The paper received the Ruy Miller Paiva Award during the 2023 edition of the Congress of the Brazilian Society of Economics, Administration and Rural Sociology (Sober), held in July, at the University of São Paulo's Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq/USP), in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil.

The researcher Aryeverton Fortes de Oliveira, from Embrapa Digital Agriculture, co-authors the paper Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the economy in different regions of Brazil  alongside Cárliton Vieira dos Santos and Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho, professors at the State University of Ponta Grossa (UEPG) and Esalq/USP, respectively. The paper was considered the best one published in Sober's journal in 2022.

The differential of the work in comparison with previous studies for Brazil lies in the use of estimates of area loss due to increased climate risk for crops based on projections for the regional pattern of climate change from the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Oliveira explains.

 

Impacts

According to the researcher, the results suggest that climate change should cause a retraction in Brazil's real GDP and point to greater losses for the poorest families and for the regions of the economy that are more dependent on agriculture. 

The investigation asserts that the actual consumption and well-being of families in Brazil's Midwest and part of the Northeast, where soybean cultivation is more representative, will be more affected than those in other regions of Brazil. The study considered both intermediate and pessimistic or more severe climate change scenarios.

Access the full version of the paper here.

 

Valéria Cristina Costa (MTb. 15533/SP, with Sober)
Embrapa Digital Agriculture

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Translation: Mariana Medeiros (13044/DF)
Superintendency of Communications

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