The finding considered different databases and information on infrastructure, climate risk and restricted areas. A study conducted by Embrapa and published this month in the international journal Land indicates the existence of approximately 28 million hectares of planted pastures in Brazil with intermediate and severe levels of degradation that have potential for the implantation of crops. According to the paper, if only grain cultivation is considered, this amount would represent a near 35% increase in Brazil's total planted area in comparison with the 2022/2023 crop year. The initiative represents an effort to integrate different public databases and can contribute with detailed quality analyzes to inform decision-making in sectors of the agricultural production chains and the elaboration of sustainable development policies, such as the Plan for Adaptation and Low Carbon Emission in Agriculture (ABC+) and the National Program for the Conversion of Degraded Pastures, by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. According to data from the Pasture Atlas published by the Federal University of Goiás (UFG) Image Processing and Geoprocessing Laboratory (LAPIG), which was one of the databases the study used, Brazilian pastures cover approximately 177 million hectares, around 40% of which have medium vegetation vigor and signs of degradation, while 20% have low vegetation vigor, i.e. severe degradation. These are areas that show reduced carrying capacity and yield. Embrapa's study cross-referenced such information on pasture quality with data produced by IBGE on the natural agricultural potential of the lands. It considered two levels of pasture degradation, severe and intermediate, and two classes of agricultural potential, good and very good. As a result, it mapped approximately 10.5 million hectares of pastures with severe degradation and 17.5 million hectares with intermediate degradation that have either good or very good potential for conversion to agriculture. The Brazilian states that contain the largest areas within these parameters include Mato Grosso (5.1 million ha), Goiás (4.7 million ha), Mato Grosso do Sul (4.3 million ha), Minas Gerais (4.0 million ha) and Pará (2.1 million ha). The analysis of potential for agricultural expansion excluded areas that are deemed special, such as indigenous lands, conservation units, rural settlements and quilombos (communities of descendants of escaped slaves), as well as those areas the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment indicated that are high priority for biodiversity conservation. "We aim to map the possibilities of agricultural expansion based on geospatial analyzes indicating areas that minimize pressure on natural resources and are implemented on a sustainable basis," explains one of the authors of the paper, Embrapa Digital Agriculture researcher Édson Bolfe. he study also included data on access to rural infrastructure and on climate conditions, with information from the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (Zarc). The authors emphasize that processes of replacing degraded pastures with crops should comply with environmental legislation and be based on the application of techniques and practices that favor productivity and sustainability, such as no-till farming, integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems and agroforestry systems. "The methodology and information databases generated by the study can also inform projects for the recovery and improvement of the vigor of pastures that are already used in cattle farming," states Edson Sano, a researcher at Embrapa Cerrados who also co-authored the paper. The study “Potential for Agricultural Expansion in Degraded Pasture Lands in Brazil Based on Geospatial Databases” was conducted by a multidisciplinary team from Embrapa Digital Agriculture, Embrapa Cerrados and Embrapa Environment, and received funding from the São Paulo State Research Support Foundation (Fapesp) and the Distrito Federal Research Support Foundation. The findings are available on Embrapa's Research Data Repository (Redape) and can be used in analyses for Brazilian states and cities. The paper was authored by Édson Bolfe, Daniel Victoria, Edson Sano, Gustavo Bayma, Silvia Massruhá, and Aryeverton de Oliveira. Infrastructure and climate risk In addition to identifying and quantifying the potential to convert pastures to agriculture, the study integrated data from existing rural infrastructure, such as the presence of warehouses and access to state and federal highways within a radius of 20 to 100 km. The analyses show, for example, that about 54% of pasture areas are within 20 km of warehouses and 89% of them are within 20 km of highways. "This is additional information that indicates the infrastructure conditions required to support possible agricultural expansion, which can, for instance, help to prioritize actions and guide investments by public and private agents," Édson Bolfe asserts. Embrapa's study also considered information from the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (ZARC), , which has a city-level scale and uses climate, soil and cultivar cycle parameters to indicate where, when and which crop to plant. Adopted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to guide rural credit and rural insurance policies, ZARC allows the identification of planting windows when there is less chance of harvests being frustrated due to adverse weather events, covering over 40 crops. The study selected three towns as examples: Guia Lopes da Laguna, in Mato Grosso do Sul; São Miguel Arcanjo, in São Paulo; and Ingaí, in Minas Gerais. The zoning in those sites helped to identify possibilities of replacing degraded pastures with annual crops like beans, rice, sorghum, sunflower, cotton, corn, soybeans, oats, wheat, an integrated system with corn and pastures, as well as some perennial crops. The three towns are part of the Semear Digital [Digital Sowing] project, funded by FAPESP, which aims at the development of actions to promote digital agriculture in smallholdings and mid-sized farms. According to Bolfe, there is room for progress in the analysis of the potential for agricultural expansion based on pre-organized databases, integration with regional databases, field validations, social information, and economic and financial viability data. "In methodological terms, it is also possible to keep improving the mapping of pasture quality, combining images from different satellites and considering the characteristics of pastures and their carrying capacity, which vary in each region of the country." Learn more: Bolfe, É.L.; Victoria, D.d.C.; Sano, E.E.; Bayma, G.; Massruhá, S.M.F.S.; de Oliveira, A.F. Potential for Agricultural Expansion in Degraded Pasture Lands in Brazil Based on Geospatial Databases. Land 2024, 13, 200. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13020200 .